The ETS Talk “ETS & national targets: Building a fair post-2030 climate architecture”, held on 27 January 2026, presented a study by the Öko-Institut commissioned by Germanwatch under the EU-funded LIFE Effect project. The panel featured Jakob Graichen and Sabine Gores (Öko-Institut) and Lena Schilling, Member of the European Parliament.

The Öko-Institut speakers highlighted that the study concludes that, if properly designed, the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and national targets can effectively complement each other and jointly contribute to achieving the EU’s proposed 2040 climate target of a 90% net emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels. While the ETS ensures EU-wide convergence and cost-efficiency, national targets remain essential to reflect solidarity and national circumstances, address non-economic barriers, and avoid excessively high ETS prices.

The discussion underlined that net targets combining emissions and removals can demonstrate overall ambition, but must be complemented by clear minimum requirements for emission reductions. Uncertain removals from the land-use sector cannot provide a reliable basis for achieving the overall target.

Jakob Graichen stressed the importance of avoiding loopholes in the post-2030 framework to ensure that the 90% emissions reduction target for 2040 is genuinely achieved, noting that broader approaches beyond the scope of the study remain possible. Lena Schilling emphasised that the 90% target for 2040 remains the political objective and that the EU must now focus on designing a post-2030 climate architecture that truly adds up to this level of ambition. While acknowledging the difficulties and compromises during negotiations, she highlighted that there is still scope to achieve the best possible outcome within the Commission’s framework.

The speakers pointed out that land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) remains a particularly complex and contentious issue, with significant debate ahead, as does the role of Article 6 (use of international credits). Overall, the discussion made clear that substantial work still lies ahead to build a robust, fair, and effective post-2030 EU climate architecture.